RAND is an American think-tank. In February 2026 it completed Integrated Strategic Forecasting (ISF), an AI conflict-prediction system overseen by Anthony Vassalo, a former senior official at America's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Asked by The Economist in May 2026, ISF put the chance of regime collapse or replacement in Iran by end-2026 at 20%—higher than many human experts would hazard.
The only qualities for real success in journalism are ratlike cunning, a plausible manner and a little literary ability. The capacity to steal other people's ideas and phrases ... is also invaluable.