Football Predictions

Monte Carlo tournament simulator. Reads pre-tournament ELO ratings scraped from eloratings.net and runs 10,000 simulations of the groups and bracket, with controls for home advantage, recent form, ELO strength, and late-round effects. Edit ratings, fix match scores, tune the model, and backtest it against past World Cups and Euros to see how the probabilities shift.

DOsinga/football_predictions blog post

Configure model
Regulation-time outcome by ELO difference
Higher-rated team wins Draw Higher-rated team loses

The chart shows a neutral group-stage match. Host advantage and later-round leveling shift the effective rating difference.

Backtest model

Compare this model with the defaults across every completed World Cup and Euro.

Not run

Stories of imagination tend to upset those without one. -- Terry Pratchett